Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Evolution and Simulation of Dike-Pond Landscape and Ecosystem Service Value Based on MCE-CA-Markov: A Case Study of Shunde, Foshan

Dike-pond is a unique agricultural landscape type in the Pearl River Delta region of China, which has significance for maintenance ecological balance. In recent years, urbanization China developed rapidly, and dike-ponds have been extensively occupied, reducing their regulation ability threatening regional security. Taking Shunde District Foshan as an example, based on remote sensing images from 1979 to 2020, using CA-Markov model with multi-criteria evaluation method (MCE), firstly spatial temporal evolution characteristics dike-pond pattern were analyzed, then 2030 was simulated. At last, spatio-temporal ecosystem service value (ESV) visualized. The results show that: (1) past four decades, types changed significantly. This mainly manifested dike-pond, cultivated land, forest land transforming into construction land. (2) class level, degree fragmentation increased, dominance agglomeration decreased. showed upward trend, whereas overall unbalanced trend distribution. It predicted that 2020 2030, will not change significantly, richness increase. (3) ESV decreased continuously 2020. accounts largest proportion main maintains decline slow future. (4) optimized MCE-CA-Markov greater precision produces better simulations. development proposed this study can provide scientific basis delimiting scope protection sustainable development.